We restrict access to Predikt in certain jurisdictions to comply with local law. This page documents every restriction, our reasoning, and how to dispute a wrong block.
How we detect your country
Country is detected from your IP address via Cloudflare and Vercel edge headers (cf-ipcountry / x-vercel-ip-country). We do not store your IP; we only store a country code (ISO 3166-1 alpha-2) hashed for analytics purposes.
Hard blocks — site unavailable
The following jurisdictions are fully blocked from Predikt:
- IT — Italy (AAMS/ADM) requires a national license to offer event contracts to Italian residents. We do not hold this license. (local regulator)
- NL — The Netherlands Gaming Authority (KSA) actively enforces a strict licensing regime on event markets. We do not hold a KSA license. (local regulator)
- BE — Belgium's Gaming Commission imposes criminal liability on operators offering event contracts to Belgian residents without a license. We do not hold a Belgian license. (local regulator)
- US — The U.S. CFTC has historically taken enforcement action against unregistered event-contract platforms. Hyperliquid itself geo-blocks U.S. IPs. We follow the same conservative stance. (local regulator)
- IR — Sanctioned jurisdiction per EU/UN/OFAC consolidated lists.
- KP — Sanctioned jurisdiction.
- CU — Sanctioned jurisdiction.
- SY — Sanctioned jurisdiction.
- RU — EU restrictive measures (CFSP 2022/2333 et seq.).
- BY — EU restrictive measures.
Category restrictions — site accessible, some markets hidden
The following jurisdictions have partial restrictions:
- FR — France's ANJ has classified prediction markets on political opinion and sports outcomes as forms of betting requiring a national license. Predikt blocks these categories for FR residents. Macro and crypto-native markets remain accessible as derivatives. Hidden categories:
opinion_politique, sports. (regulator) - DE — Germany's GGL (Glücksspielbehörde) enforces a strict licensing regime on sports and political prediction markets. Macro and crypto markets remain accessible. Hidden categories:
opinion_politique, sports. (regulator) - ES — Spain's DGOJ regulates event contracts. We restrict political markets pending legal review. Hidden categories:
opinion_politique. (regulator) - PT — Portugal's SRIJ regulates online gambling. Political markets are restricted; macro/crypto/sports remain accessible pending legal review. Hidden categories:
opinion_politique. (regulator) - PL — Poland's KSF regulates event contracts. Political and sports markets restricted. Hidden categories:
opinion_politique, sports.
How market visibility decisions work
When you visit Predikt, our Edge proxy reads your IP-derived country and (a) either redirects to /geo-blocked for hard-blocked jurisdictions or (b) emits an x-geo-hidden-categories header for restricted jurisdictions. The market catalogue filters server-side based on this header before sending HTML to your browser. Hidden markets are not even rendered in your session.
Why categories instead of full blocks?
Some EU countries (FR, DE, ES, PT) treat certain prediction markets as licensed gambling (typically political opinion markets, and for FR/DE additionally sports) while leaving othersas unregulated financial derivatives (typically macro, crypto-native, weather, tech). Rather than block all users, we hide just the restricted categories. This is more granular and respects users' right to access lawful markets.
What about VPN users?
Using a VPN to access Predikt from a hard-blocked jurisdiction is a violation of our Terms. We may freeze accounts identified as originating from such jurisdictions. You assume all legal liability for compliance with your local law.
Conversely, an EU user travelling abroad may temporarily see a different country and a different market catalogue. This is correct behaviour.
Disputing a wrong block
If our IP-based detection misclassifies your location (e.g. you live in Belgium but your ISP routes via the Netherlands and you cannot access Predikt), email us at support@predikt.markets with:
- The country code we showed you (visible on the /geo-blocked page).
- Your actual country of habitual residence.
- Proof of residence (utility bill, ID; redact sensitive parts — we only need country + name).
We respond within 48 hours. Verified mistakes are corrected immediately.
When restrictions change
Local regulators occasionally clarify their stance. We monitor the AMF (FR), ANJ (FR), BaFin (DE), DGOJ (ES), SRIJ (PT), GGL (DE), KSF (PL), AAMS (IT), KSA (NL), and Belgian Gaming Commission. When a meaningful change occurs, we update this page within 72 hours and notify affected users by email.
Audit log
Every geo-block decision (hard block + category hide) is logged in our tamper-evident audit log (SHA-256 hash chain, daily Merkle root anchored on Arbitrum mainnet). Regulators can request the audit trail.
Draft note (2026-05-27): This is a working draft. Final country list and category mapping will be locked after external legal counsel completes review.