Trading prediction markets, perpetuals and spot crypto on Predikt creates taxable events in most EU jurisdictions. This page summarises the rules we are most often asked about — France, Germany, Spain, Portugal — and points everyone else to their national tax authority. It is not personal tax advice. Every situation is different. Always finish with a local accountant.
1. What Predikt gives you to make tax filing easier
Every trade routed through our builder code is logged with timestamp, market, side (buy YES / buy NO / sell), size, price, fees, and post-trade portfolio mark-to-market. We expose two derived artefacts:
- Per-trade CSV export — download from
/portfolio/export.csv. Columns:trade_id, timestamp_utc, market, side, size_usdc, price, fees_usdc, realized_pnl_usdc, wallet. Designed to be drop-in importable to Waltio, Koinly, Accointing and CoinTracking. - Partner integration badge — Waltio & Koinly partner integration coming Q3 2026. We are in commercial discussions; until then please use the CSV.
2. France — PFU 30%, social levies 17.2%, total 31.4% as needed
For French tax residents, occasional crypto-asset capital gains are taxed under the Prélèvement Forfaitaire Unique (PFU) of 30%, made up of 12.8% income tax and 17.2% social levies (CSG / CRDS / prélèvement de solidarité). Where applicable, an additional 4% contribution exceptionnelle sur les hauts revenus brings the headline to 31.4% — but only for high-bracket taxpayers.
Two forms matter every year:
- Form 2086 — detail of each disposition (cession) of digital assets. Each closing trade is one line, with acquisition basis and gain/loss. Our CSV is calibrated for this format.
- Form 3916-bis — declaration of digital-asset accounts held abroad. Any wallet not held with a French PSAN (Prestataire de Services sur Actifs Numériques) must be declared. This includes a Hyperliquid wallet, a MetaMask address, a Ledger hardware wallet, and a Privy embedded wallet. The penalty for non-declaration is severe (€750 per undeclared account, up to €10,000 if the assets exceed €50,000).
Frequent traders may instead fall under the BIC (bénéfices industriels et commerciaux) regime if their activity is deemed habitual. This is a fact-pattern test (frequency, organisation, sophistication of tools) and is best discussed with an accountant. Mining and staking income follow different rules altogether (BNC if occasional, BIC if habitual).
DAC8 — the EU directive on administrative cooperation in the field of taxation (Council Directive (EU) 2023/2226) was transposed and entered into force on 1 January 2026. From that date, reporting crypto-asset service providers (RCASPs) must collect counterparty residency, value, and gain data on every reportable transaction and share it with the tax authority of the user's residence. Predikt OÜ's position is that, as a non-custodial software interface, we are not a Reporting CASP under DAC8 Art. 8ad. We do not file DAC8 reports on your behalf. The reporting burden therefore falls on you — declare via 2086 and 3916-bis.
En français : utilisez le formulaire 2086 pour détailler chaque cession et le formulaire 3916-bis pour déclarer chaque wallet détenu en dehors d'un PSAN. Consultez un expert-comptable fiscaliste pour votre situation personnelle.
Consult a local accountant for your specific situation.
3. Germany — speculative gains under §23 EStG
Germany treats private crypto-asset holdings under §23 Einkommensteuergesetz (EStG) — the rules on private sale transactions (private Veräußerungsgeschäfte). Two features stand out:
- One-year holding period: if you hold a unit of crypto for more than 12 months before disposing of it, the gain is tax-free. This is the headline advantage of the German regime relative to France.
- Short-term gains (held ≤ 12 months) are taxed at your personal income tax rate, up to 45% (plus the solidarity surcharge of 5.5% on the tax owed). There is a €1,000 annual allowance (Freigrenze) below which short-term gains are tax-free; cross it by €1 and the whole gain is taxable.
Note that the BMF (German Federal Ministry of Finance) clarified in its 2022 circular that FIFO (first-in first-out) is the default cost-basis method for crypto. Each wallet is treated as a separate pool. Prediction-market settlements raise interesting characterisation questions (capital gain vs other income); this is an evolving area and there is no settled BMF guidance specifically on HIP-4 outcome contracts as of May 2026.
Consult a local accountant for your specific situation.
4. Spain — IRPF brackets, Modelo 720, Modelo 721
Spanish residents pay IRPF (Impuesto sobre la Renta de las Personas Físicas) on capital gains from crypto-asset disposals, at the savings-income brackets:
- 19% up to €6,000
- 21% from €6,000 to €50,000
- 23% from €50,000 to €200,000
- 27% from €200,000 to €300,000
- 28% above €300,000 (applicable from the 2023 fiscal year)
Two reporting obligations are easy to miss:
- Modelo 720 — declaration of assets and rights held abroad, mandatory when the aggregate value of foreign holdings (cash, securities, real estate) exceeds €50,000. Whether crypto held in self-custody falls under Modelo 720 has been debated; the Hacienda has clarified that crypto-specific reporting goes through Modelo 721 instead.
- Modelo 721 — declaration of virtual currencies held abroad. Mandatory for Spanish residents when the aggregate value of crypto held in non-Spanish wallets or platforms exceeds €50,000 at any point during the year. Side note: self-custody in a Ledger / Privy / MetaMask wallet operated from Spain still requires declaration if the underlying service is not authorised in Spain.
Consult a local accountant for your specific situation.
5. Portugal — 28% short-term flat, NHR carve-out, 365-day exemption
Portugal moved decisively on crypto taxation in 2023. The headline rules:
- Short-term gains(assets held < 365 days) are taxed at a flat 28% under Category G of the IRS (capital gains), with an option to aggregate at progressive rates if favourable.
- Long-term gains (assets held ≥ 365 days) are tax-exempt, mirroring Germany's holding incentive. The asset has to be the same fungible unit acquired and held continuously.
- NHR (Non-Habitual Resident) regime: the original NHR was closed to new applicants in 2024; a successor (IFICI) for highly-qualified-activity professionals applies from 2024 onward and does not provide a blanket crypto carve-out. Pre-existing NHR holders retain their grandfathered benefits for the original 10-year window.
- Crypto-to-crypto swaps are not treated as disposals — only crypto-to-fiat (or to non-fungible assets) is taxable. This is an unusual feature among EU jurisdictions and a known reason crypto-native founders relocate.
Consult a local accountant for your specific situation.
6. Other EU countries — high-level pointer
For users resident in any other EU member state, the high-level guidance is:
- Italy — 26% flat on gains above the €2,000 annual allowance (and Predikt is currently fully geo-blocked there — see Geo Restrictions).
- Netherlands — Box 3 wealth-tax-style regime, with fictitious-yield rules; geo-blocked.
- Belgium — case-by-case (private investor / good father of family / speculative); geo-blocked.
- Austria — 27.5% flat on crypto gains since 1 March 2022.
- Ireland — 33% Capital Gains Tax with a €1,270 annual exemption.
- Poland — 19% on crypto-to-fiat gains, declared on PIT-38.
For everywhere else, look up your national tax authority — most publish at least a Q&A in English. We cannot give country-specific advice for jurisdictions we are not deeply familiar with. Consult a local accountant for your specific situation.
7. What Predikt does NOT do
- We do not file DAC8 reports on your behalf (we are not a Reporting CASP).
- We do not withhold tax at source. All trades settle gross on Hyperliquid L1.
- We do not provide personal tax advice. Anything on this page is informational only.
- We do not share your trade data with national tax authorities pre-emptively. We respond to lawful requests only, see AML / KYC Policy for the procedure.
8. Contact
Questions about CSV export or the future Waltio / Koinly integration: tax@predikt.markets.
Draft note (2026-05-27): Tax law evolves constantly. DAC8 transposition is fresh (1 Jan 2026) and the BMF / DGFIP / Agencia Tributaria / AT-PT all have outstanding crypto-specific guidance notes pending. This page will be updated each quarter and on every material legal change. Final wording subject to formal legal and accounting review.