Trading prediction markets and crypto-asset derivatives on Hyperliquid HIP-4 involves substantial risk, including the risk of total loss of capital. Please read this disclosure carefully before placing any trade.
1. Total loss is possible
Prediction market outcomes are binary. If the market resolves against your position, you lose 100% of your stake. Past performance, AI-generated probability estimates, and on-chain analytics do not predict future results.
2. Smart contract risk
Hyperliquid's Layer-1 chain, builder code mechanism, and any future signer/agent-wallet contract are software. Software has bugs. A critical bug in any of these components could result in irreversible loss. We mitigate by (a) only routing to audited primitives, (b) using non-custodial agent wallets that cannot withdraw funds, and (c) committing audit reports publicly. None of these mitigations is a guarantee.
3. Oracle and settlement risk
HIP-4 markets are settled by the Hyperliquid validator set. Settlement is usually fast (seconds) and validator-attested, but validator collusion, ambiguous resolution criteria, or disputed real-world events can lead to delayed, incorrect, or contested settlement. We require a multi-source oracle for high-impact markets and document the resolution criteria on each market page.
4. Liquidity risk
Early-stage markets may have thin order books. Closing a position before settlement may require accepting a wide spread or partial fills. Settlement is the guaranteed exit path.
5. Volatility risk
Probability prices can move rapidly in response to news, on-chain whale activity, or sentiment swings. A position that is 80% YES today can be 20% YES tomorrow if material news lands.
6. Regulatory risk
The legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction may change. We apply hard geo-blocks for US, IT, NL, BE residents (and sanctioned jurisdictions) and category-level restrictions for FR, DE, ES, PT, PL on political and (where applicable) sports markets. See Geo Restrictions. Predikt reserves the right to add jurisdictions to the block list at any time.
7. Technical risk
Self-custody means you alone are responsible for the security of your wallet, private keys, and seed phrases. Predikt never receives or stores your private keys. We cannot recover lost keys, reverse phished signatures, or restore drained wallets.
8. AI-generated content is informational only
Predikt's “AI fair value”, “Risk Coach”, and any Gemini-powered analytical content are not investment advice. They are statistical estimates derived from public information and may be materially incorrect. Always do your own research.
9. Tax responsibility
You are solely responsible for declaring trading gains and complying with your local tax law. French residents: PFU 31.4% applies; declare via forms 2086 and 3916-bis. See Tax Information.
10. Acknowledgement
By using Predikt and placing your first trade, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risks. If you do not understand any section of this disclosure, do not trade. Seek professional advice instead.
Draft note (2026-05-27): This disclosure is a working draft; an enriched version with country-specific addenda will replace it once external legal counsel completes review.